Poor Easter Fortnight for Retail Predicted; Shoppers Down 5.2% on Easter 2007

Predicted figures from the Retail Traffic Index (RTI) by analysts SPSL, now part of global research company Synovate, show that this year’s early Easter – the earliest since 1913 – and the expected poor weather, which we’ve already seen the first of this Sunday (16th March), acting in concert with financially stretched consumers, are likely to mean a disappointingly poor Easter for retailers.

SPSL’s retail psychologist, Dr Tim Denison said; “Nobody can escape the fact that the start of 2008 has been challenging for retailers across the country. I do not relish being the harbinger of bad news, but our latest forecast does not paint a very healthy picture for Easter retail and those retailers relying on the traditional Easter ‘boost’ to their takings are likely to be rather disappointed.

“A couple of key factors conspire against a busy fortnight (between Sunday 16th March and Saturday 29th March inclusive). Firstly, this is the earliest Easter for almost a century and the earlier it falls the smaller the boost to shopper numbers. Secondly, the weather outlook of predominantly wet weather will be another key depressant, if indeed the forecast is realised.

“DIY chains and garden centres, in particular, always look forward to shoppers embarking on home improvement, spring cleaning and gardening projects. Last year under the Easter sun, barbecue sales were twice as high as the previous Easter and plants and garden furniture sales up by more than a quarter. This year they will be desperately hoping that the rain stays away because if not, it will be a damp squib for them, not the seasonal boost that they usually receive.

“In fact, wherever you look on the high street at the moment, it is hard to spot any hot spots, with the exception of the food juggernauts. High ticket items are under the shadows of straining wallets and a slowing housing market and fashion looks in a not too dissimilar state. Whereas last year summer wear, particularly men’s shorts, were simply flying out of the stores at Easter, this year it is more likely to be woollies and wellies. The lack of any prolonged spell of weather, be it cold, or wet, mild or sunny acts to cause shoppers to prevaricate over purchasing clothing. People generally need a week or so of settled weather to decide that they really need some new clothes, and we’re just not seeing that at the moment. The lack of a strong, well-defined new style, whether popular or cult, is also hurting the high street.”

“If it’s not going to happen at Easter this year, we must all hope for a long, hot summer to help lift consumer confidence and spending. This said, it might take more than a spell of good weather.”  

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