December’s Retail Verdict: Shopper Numbers Hit SPSL’s Forecast
5 January 2007
Retail Traffic Index™ figures from the retail research group, SPSL, released today show that UK in-store footfall for December was down by 2.3% over the 2005 level, marginally better than SPSL’s prediction of a year on year fall of 2.4% on 2005. This is the first key indicator to be published that provides a retail verdict on Christmas 2006. December shopper numbers rose by 34.8% against November 2006.
Dr. Tim Denison, Director of Knowledge Management at SPSL and leading retail psychologist comments; “Tracking how retail traffic levels built up over the course of December was enthralling to watch this year as we saw the complex interplay between consumers and retailers. However, it would have been nerve-jangling for UK retailers particularly for those team players charged with creating initiatives to drive shoppers through the doors this Christmas.
“Many of us had anticipated a slow start to the month, on the back of a tough November. This proved to be the case with shopper numbers down by 5.1% year-on-year in the first week of the month. Progressively over the last 8 years our data have shown shoppers taking to the streets later and later; partly because they may have been waiting for retailers’ nerves to crack, but partly because many now prefer to do some of their gift searching and early shopping on-line in good time for guaranteed deliveries.
“We didn’t, however, expect the slow start to the month and poor year-on-year comparison to remain true for the whole of December. And reassuringly, by the end of Week 2 the gap in numbers for the month to that point against 2005 had been cut to -4.3%. The ‘rush curve’ was gathering significant momentum as more and more shoppers started their in-store gift-buying sprees.
“The build-up to Christmas never follows a smooth trend, it seems, and this year the wobble came in Week 3, between the 12th to the 15th, when the gap in the numbers of shoppers against last year began to grow again. To their great credit, many retailers had either planned their campaigns exceptionally well or were on the ball enough to react to the situation. Whatever the case, by the end of Week 3 advertising and promotional campaigns had stepped up very noticeably, with some stores, particularly in the fashion sector, deciding to go to full Sale. These actions seemingly did the trick: consumers became fully engaged and Saturday 16th became the busiest day in the run-up to Christmas and kick started a frantic, final full trading week of shopping.
“Though we did not see a record-breaking surge in the weekend before Christmas Day, the extra day’s trading this year did secure year-on-year gains of 0.8% in Week 4 and the running month’s gap against last year fell to 3.0%. I expect that most retailers, if offered at the beginning of the month the position they ended up with on Christmas Eve, would have settled for it.
“Perhaps the most unexpected part of the December story was left right to the tail end of the month. The last minute crush in the stores on the 23rd-24th simply failed to materialise, but instead it happened after Christmas! Despite a shorter trading week this year shopper numbers were up by +0.5% in the final week of the month compared to last year. The 27th was the busiest Sale day since 2002 with many stores reporting record figures.
“The reason for this is now obvious; with most retailers choosing to hold off going into Sale before Christmas, many consumers delayed their final shopping spree until the wholesale bargains materialised – after Christmas Day. There was some talk beforehand of shoppers showing signs of retail lethargy this year, but it seems that their appetite for waiting and then pouncing on bargains is insatiable.
“This behaviour could simply be seen as the latest round in the consumer / retailer lion v. wildebeest act played out every year, but it might also suggest something more concerning to retailers – which is that a growing proportion of shoppers are feeling mounting economic pressure and are resisting the most frivolous and impulsive non-Sale spending.”
“The RTI dataset is the first key indicator to be published that provides a retail verdict on Christmas 2006. Retailers can take heart from its results, that the gloom felt in November lifted in December, and though still down on 2005, the month produced the best year-on-year comparisons of the year, bar the exception of an Easter-bolstered April. All eyes will now be on how these results compare to the sales indicators and individual trading results.
ENDS
All enquiries for follow up or interviews with Dr Tim Denison should be directed to Theo Chalmers at Verve PR on 01908 275271 (weekdays) or 07932 004632.
SPSL would like to make it clear that the RTI is the only UK index that exclusively measures the number of shoppers actually entering stores as opposed to persons entering retail centres, where there may be stores as well as other non-retail premises and which may be accessed for a host of reasons other than in order to enter a store.
ABOUT SPSL
Established in 1989, retail research group SPSL is the largest European provider of proprietary tools for high accuracy customer traffic and behavioural analysis deployed by retailers. The company monitors more than 420 million visits to over 2,150 retail premises per annum in the UK alone. Its customers include many of the retail industry’s most successful companies across all retail sectors except grocery, convenience and minor retail service sectors. SPSL is trusted by retailers to provide mission-critical Key Performance Indicators to measure customer volume, sales opportunities, conversion rates, staff stretch, promotional activity and in-store lay-outs. Its data features regularly in serious trade and consumer media and it exclusively provides the UK Retail Traffic Weather Map as seen in Retail Week and on the Retail Bulletin website. Director of SPSL, retail psychologist Dr. Tim Denison is a frequent and popular commentator on issues relating to shopping for national and regional broadcast, print and online media.
Using SPSL systems, retailers are able to reliably measure customer traffic flow on an ongoing hour-by-hour basis as well as determine in-store ‘weather’, assess the impact of marketing initiatives, and tailor staff levels according to customer demand rather than service supply. The company owes its unrivalled reputation and success on the accuracy, dependability and specialist nature of both its data and its support services. It runs its UK and European operations from its head office in Milton Keynes, England and invests heavily in developing advanced behavioural analysis and tracking tools to create ever more beneficial trading results for its customers and ever more enriched shopping experiences for theirs.
STOP PRESS: SPSL wins GLA tender. From 24th July 2006, SPSL has been appointed as sole official supplier of footfall data to the Greater London Authority (GLA) and Transport for London (TfL). The GLA has entrusted SPSL with this critical task in order to have a truly accurate measure of the impact of the existing Congestion Zone and the proposed Congestion Zone western extension on shopper numbers in central London. SPSL is proud to enter into this relationship with the GLA and to have demonstrated once again the superior accuracy, robustness and reliability of its data.
ABOUT THE RETAIL TRAFFIC INDEX (RTI)
The RTI from SPSL is regarded as the national benchmark of retail shopper traffic flow. It is constructed using a nationally representative sample of over 420 million visits to over 2,150 retail premises per annum across the UK, excluding the grocery, convenience and minor retail service sectors. For further details and a full explanation see www.customercounting.com.
For PRODUCT information please contact:
Dominic McGuinness or Dr Tim Denison
SPSL
34 Walker Avenue
Wolverton Mill
MILTON KEYNES
MK12 5TW
Tel: +44(0)1908 682700
Fax: +44(0)1908 682739
website: www.customercounting.com
MEDIA enquiries to:
Theo Chalmers
Verve Public Relations
Park House, 8 Grove Ash
Mount Farm
MILTON KEYNES MK1 1BZ
Tel: +44(0)1908 275271
Fax: +44(0)1908 275272
e-mail: t.chalmers@vervepr.co.uk