Christmas No Retail Disaster Yet Says SPSL
Retail research group SPSL’s latest shopping figures to be released today in the run-up to Christmas show that in November the Retail Traffic Index ™ (RTI™) fell by 4.9% against November 2005, representing a somewhat paltry a rise of only 2.4% over October, but it’s not all over yet, says SPSL.
Dr. Tim Denison, Director of Knowledge Management at SPSL and leading retail psychologist comments; “These are not the sort of figures that make comfortable reading for retailers. However, we believe that recent talk of a Christmas crisis from some quarters is premature and fails to acknowledge fairly well-documented behavioural changes in recent years.
“The last fortnight of November used to be a time for reconnoitre, walking around the stores in search of inspiration for gifts, accompanied by some spontaneous purchasing. Nowadays, many people no longer have the luxury of so much time, or the inclination to face crowded roads and parking spaces; instead they’re using the internet to do their intelligence gathering and some early buying where they feel comfortable with delivery promises and even then most often for goods that don’t require picking out for size, texture or quality.
“It’s also a fact that over the last few years people have left their trips to the shops later and later, largely as a result of certain retailers panicking and declaring pre-Christmas sales in recent years. This year it seems the change in behaviour is even more pronounced. For the first fortnight of November, the month was tracking well against our expectations. However, over the last two weeks, shopper numbers failed to build at the rate we were anticipating. Indeed, numbers were down year on year by a telling 8.5% for the second fortnight of November.
“The fear is that the surge will never come and that the slack trading will not be made up. Inevitably, once again, consumers are forcing the retailers’ hands. Consumers have learned to hold off spending until money-off inducements, such as the recent plethora of discount vouchers ‘Secret Sales’ and short term ‘Sale Extravaganzas’ in the first week of December stimulate store traffic and trade. Among Oxford Street’s flagship stores, the promotional evidence was plain to see; John Lewis being the notable exception.
“The question is whether the slow start will be symptomatic of the whole campaign, or whether it reflects changing habits and bargaining expectations. With high streets now awash with special offers, we should be able to determine over the next week or so what sort of Christmas this will become. No-one was expecting Christmas 2006 to be a bonanza. Steady and satisfactory was the general call. SPSL still adheres to this view. We forecast that the number of shopping trips will fall by 2.4% year-on-year in December – not a carnival but certainly not a major crisis, particularly for those retailers with the right stock and inducements.”
Note
All enquiries for follow up or interviews with Dr Tim Denison should be directed to Theo Chalmers at Verve PR on 01908 275271 (weekdays) or 07932 004632.
ENDS
ABOUT SPSL
Established in 1989, retail research group SPSL is the largest European provider of proprietary tools for high accuracy customer traffic and behavioural analysis deployed by retailers. The company monitors more than 420 million visits to over 2,150 retail premises per annum in the UK alone. Its customers include many of the retail industry’s most successful companies across all retail sectors except grocery, convenience and minor retail service sectors. SPSL is trusted by retailers to provide mission-critical Key Performance Indicators to measure customer volume, sales opportunities, conversion rates, staff stretch, promotional activity and in-store lay-outs. Its data features regularly in serious trade and consumer media and it exclusively provides the UK Retail Traffic Weather Map as seen in Retail Week and on the Retail Bulletin website. Director of SPSL, retail psychologist Dr. Tim Denison is a frequent and popular commentator on issues relating to shopping for national and regional broadcast, print and online media.
Using SPSL systems, retailers are able to reliably measure customer traffic flow on an ongoing hour-by-hour basis as well as determine in-store ‘weather’, assess the impact of marketing initiatives, and tailor staff levels according to customer demand rather than service supply. The company owes its unrivalled reputation and success on the accuracy, dependability and specialist nature of both its data and its support services. It runs its UK and European operations from its head office in Milton Keynes, England and invests heavily in developing advanced behavioural analysis and tracking tools to create ever more beneficial trading results for its customers and ever more enriched shopping experiences for theirs.
STOP PRESS: SPSL wins GLA tender. From 24th July 2006, SPSL has been appointed as sole official supplier of footfall data to the Greater London Authority (GLA) and Transport for London (TfL). The GLA has entrusted SPSL with this critical task in order to have a truly accurate measure of the impact of the existing Congestion Zone and the proposed Congestion Zone western extension on shopper numbers in central London. SPSL is proud to enter into this relationship with the GLA and to have demonstrated once again the superior accuracy, robustness and reliability of its data.
ABOUT THE RETAIL TRAFFIC INDEX (RTI)
The RTI from SPSL is regarded as the national benchmark of retail shopper traffic flow. It is constructed using a nationally representative sample of over 420 million visits to over 2,150 retail premises per annum across the UK, excluding the grocery, convenience and minor retail service sectors. For further details and a full explanation see www.customercounting.com.
For PRODUCT information please contact:
Dominic McGuinness or Dr Tim Denison
SPSL
34 Walker Avenue
Wolverton Mill
MILTON KEYNES
MK12 5TW
Tel: +44( 0)1908 682700
Fax: +44( 0)1908 682739
website: www.customercounting.com
MEDIA enquiries to:
Theo Chalmers
Verve Public Relations
Park House, 8 Grove Ash
Mount Farm
MILTON KEYNES MK1 1BZ
Tel: +44( 0)1908 275271
Fax: +44( 0)1908 275272
e-mail: t.chalmers@vervepr.co.uk